Full text: Assess_Ceta

Research 17 sectors benefit significantly from CETA, while effects for the Canadian service sectors are mixed and contractions are reported for processed foods and beverages & tobacco. On the EU-side, negative changes are notable in a number of manufacturing sectors (metals, transport equipment and machinery & equipment with up to -0.7%). All other sectors show marginal and slightly positive output changes, with the processed foods sector seeing the strongest expansion (+0.6%). The static model results in the SIA (2011) show less pronounced sectoral output effects compared to the Joint Study (2008). However, it underlines the pattern of stronger changes for Canada and the mixed results in the manufacturing sector on both sides. The main dif- ferences in the sectoral results appear in the agricultural and processed foods sectors. The disaggregated sectoral effects in the SIA see most EU sub-sectors such as wheat, red meat and other meat products as loosing sectors due to CETA, while the corresponding Canadi- an sectors gain from the agreement. The reverse effect is reported for the dairy sector with substantial losses in the Canadian dairy sector of more than -12.5%, while the EU-dairy sector gains close to 1%. Thus, the SIA (2011, p.15) highlights potentially large CETA ef- fects in sensitive food products. The sectoral output changes due to CETA for the Austrian economy in Francois/Pindyuk (2013, p.15, Table 10) are positive for all sectors except for the ‘other goods’ sector. All other sectors increase production ranging from 0.05% in chemicals up to 0.74% in motor vehicles. The positive output effects reflect the dynamic investment impacts assumed in the model which leads to broad increases across most sectors. Corresponding effects for Can- ada are not reported. Trade Impacts In the studies, output changes are related to changes in trade due to the trade liberalisation. These changes reflect the reductions in trade costs that come from elimination of tariffs and trade costs related to NTMs. Only SIA (2011) reports changes in total exports with a marginal increase of 0.07% for the whole EU and 1.56% for Canada in their most comprehensive scenario D. This results in an improvement of the EU’s balance of trade of close to USD 200 million, meaning that growth in EU’s exports exceeds growth in imports by that amount. This is largely driven by effects from service liberalisation (SIA 2011, p.45, Figure 3). For Canada, the balance of trade im- proves by almost USD 500 million as Canada also benefits from tariff cuts (SIA 2011, p.45, Figure 4). Changes in bilateral trade are reported in the Joint Study (2008, for EU-Canada) and by Francois/Pindyuk (2013, for Austria-Canada) (see Table 8). In the Joint Study (2008) per- centage changes in bilateral trade are almost identical with 16.8% in EU exports to Canada and 16.5% in Canadian exports to the EU. Based on the different initial trade volumes, this leads to a higher absolute change in exports by EUR 11.5 billion in the case of EU exports to Canada compared to increased exports from Canada to the EU by EUR 6.4 billion. Changes in EU exports exceed corresponding Canadian exports in both industrial goods and services. In addition EU exports in processed foods contribute significantly to higher EU exports with an increase of more than EUR 5.5 billion or 326%. Table 8: Changes in bilateral exports, in percent EU / Austria Canada Joint Study 16.8 16.5 F/P 50.3 71.9

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