Full text: Assess_Ceta

Research 25 impact analyses can lead to simplified and overly optimistic assessments of benefits from free trade agreements. Table 10: Potential Adjustment Costs, in EUR Part I Austria Cumulative - 10 year period a. Unemployment Benefits 430 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 1) 8,542,120 430 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 2 - 5) 29,518,599 3,870 short term unemployed (6 months) 38,439,540 Sub-Total 76,500,259 b. Foregone Public Income from Taxes and Social Contributions 430 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 2 - 5) 26,830,092 3,870 short term unemployed (6 months) 24,147,083 Sub-Total 50,977,176 Cumulative Adjustment Costs – TOTAL (EUR) 127,477,435 Part II EU Cumulative - 10 year period a. Unemployment Benefits 16.698 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 1) 266,700,914 16.698 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 2 - 5) 712,928,286 150.282 short term unemployed (6 months) 30,905,873 Sub-Total 1,010,535,073 b. Foregone Public Income from Taxes and Social Contributions 16.698 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 2 - 5) 737,608,253 150.282 short term unemployed (6 months) 663,847,428 Sub-Total 1,401,455,682 Cumulative Adjustment Costs – TOTAL (EUR) 2,411,990,754 Sources: OECD Employment Statistics, Benefits and wages statistics, http://www.oecd.org/els/benefits-and-wages- statistics.htm (02/06/2016); Eurostat Labour Market Statistics Assumptions: Average duration of long-term unemployment during TTIP implementation phase: 5 years; Average duration of short-term unemployment during TTIP implementation phase: 0.5 years; Number of displaced persons post-CETA ratification: in Austria 4,300 (based on displacement index calculated based on Francois/Pindyuk, 2013) and in the EU 167,000 (SIA, 2011) – 90% of unemployment is short-term, 10% long-term; Average annual net income per worker (simple average 4 family types, 100% Average Wage, 2014): 30,070 EUR (AUT), 24,473 EUR (EU); Net Replacement Rate (60 month unemployed, simple average 6 family types and 100% Average Wage): 57% (AUT), 44% (EU); Net Replacement Rate (initial unemployment phase, simple average 6 family types and 100% Average Wage): 66% (AUT), 65%(EU); Implicit tax rate on labor (2012): 41.5% (AUT), 36.1% (EU).

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