Full text: Assess_Ceta

Research  25 
impact analyses can lead to simplified and overly optimistic assessments of benefits from 
free trade agreements.  
Table 10: Potential Adjustment Costs, in EUR 
Part I Austria 
 
Cumulative -  
10 year period 
a. Unemployment Benefits 
 430 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 1)            8,542,120  
430 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 2 - 5)          29,518,599  
3,870 short term unemployed (6 months)          38,439,540  
Sub-Total         76,500,259  
  
 
b. Foregone Public Income from Taxes and Social Contributions 
 430 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 2 - 5)          26,830,092  
3,870 short term unemployed (6 months)          24,147,083  
Sub-Total         50,977,176  
    
Cumulative Adjustment Costs – TOTAL (EUR)       127,477,435  
 
 
Part II EU 
 
Cumulative -  
10 year period 
a. Unemployment Benefits 
 
16.698 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 1) 266,700,914 
16.698 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 2 - 5) 712,928,286 
150.282 short term unemployed (6 months) 30,905,873 
Sub-Total 1,010,535,073 
  
 
b. Foregone Public Income from Taxes and Social Contributions 
 16.698 long-term unemployed post-CETA (Year 2 - 5) 737,608,253 
150.282 short term unemployed (6 months) 663,847,428 
Sub-Total 1,401,455,682 
  
 
Cumulative Adjustment Costs – TOTAL (EUR)  2,411,990,754 
 
Sources: OECD Employment Statistics, Benefits and wages statistics, http://www.oecd.org/els/benefits-and-wages-
statistics.htm (02/06/2016); Eurostat Labour Market Statistics 
Assumptions: Average duration of long-term unemployment during TTIP implementation phase: 5 years; Average 
duration of short-term unemployment during TTIP implementation phase: 0.5 years; Number of displaced persons 
post-CETA ratification: in Austria 4,300 (based on displacement index calculated based on Francois/Pindyuk, 2013) 
and in the EU 167,000 (SIA, 2011) – 90% of unemployment is short-term, 10% long-term; Average annual net income 
per worker (simple average 4 family types, 100% Average Wage, 2014): 30,070 EUR (AUT), 24,473 EUR (EU); Net 
Replacement Rate (60 month unemployed, simple average 6 family types and 100% Average Wage): 57% (AUT), 
44% (EU); Net Replacement Rate (initial unemployment phase, simple average 6 family types and 100% Average 
Wage): 66% (AUT), 65%(EU); Implicit tax rate on labor (2012): 41.5% (AUT), 36.1% (EU).
        

Note to user

Dear user,

In response to current developments in the web technology used by the Goobi viewer, the software no longer supports your browser.

Please use one of the following browsers to display this page correctly.

Thank you.