Full text: Repair the roof when the sun is shining (171)

iAGS 2018 - independent Annual Growth Survey 6th Report 
Figure 2. Impact of Fiscal Policy on GDP growth 
In points of GDP 
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201 6 2017 2018 2019 
Source: Ameco. 
Besides, some previously favourable factors have nevertheless turned negative 
and will hit growth. For the euro area countries, this is the case of both oil and 
the euro. The hike in oil prices will however be moderate. All else being equal, 
this will result in a decline in the purchasing power of household disposable 
income, which will cut growth by 0.1 point. For the euro area countries, support 
from the external value of the euro ended with the currency's recent apprecia­
tion. After having reached a low point of 1 .05 dollars for a euro in April 201 7, the 
European currency has entered a new phase of appreciation, which is linked to 
the following: an improvement in the outlook for the euro area's growth; a 
normalization of the US monetary policy that is less rapid than the markets 
initially expected; and an increase in the euro area's current account balance. In 
2018 and 2019, we continue to forecast the stabilization of the euro-dollar 
exchange rate at 1.2, while the cumulative effect of the euro's appreciation and 
of variations in export prices in the different countries for the two years will come 
to 0.2 point in Germany, 0.3 point in France, 0.4 point in Italy and 0.3 point in 
Spain. In addition, this impact could be partially offset by more favourable devel­
opments in world trade than what took place in 2015 and 2016. Recent statistics 
on world imports indeed suggest a brighter outlook and a rebound in trade. 
In the United Kingdom, the effect of the decline in the pound sterling following 
on the heels of the vote for Brexit is taken into account in the impact of the 
Brexit shock. This depreciation will positively affect foreign trade, but will also

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