1.0 -2.0 iAGS 2018 - independent Annual Growth Survey 6th Report Figure 2. Impact of Fiscal Policy on GDP growth In points of GDP 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201 6 2017 2018 2019 Source: Ameco. Besides, some previously favourable factors have nevertheless turned negative and will hit growth. For the euro area countries, this is the case of both oil and the euro. The hike in oil prices will however be moderate. All else being equal, this will result in a decline in the purchasing power of household disposable income, which will cut growth by 0.1 point. For the euro area countries, support from the external value of the euro ended with the currency's recent apprecia­ tion. After having reached a low point of 1 .05 dollars for a euro in April 201 7, the European currency has entered a new phase of appreciation, which is linked to the following: an improvement in the outlook for the euro area's growth; a normalization of the US monetary policy that is less rapid than the markets initially expected; and an increase in the euro area's current account balance. In 2018 and 2019, we continue to forecast the stabilization of the euro-dollar exchange rate at 1.2, while the cumulative effect of the euro's appreciation and of variations in export prices in the different countries for the two years will come to 0.2 point in Germany, 0.3 point in France, 0.4 point in Italy and 0.3 point in Spain. In addition, this impact could be partially offset by more favourable devel­ opments in world trade than what took place in 2015 and 2016. Recent statistics on world imports indeed suggest a brighter outlook and a rebound in trade. In the United Kingdom, the effect of the decline in the pound sterling following on the heels of the vote for Brexit is taken into account in the impact of the Brexit shock. This depreciation will positively affect foreign trade, but will also