44—Miess, Schmelzer/SFC Model Austria—IHS 4 Business As Usual (BAU) - Results The business as usual scenario is the simplest forecast the model can produce. All parameters and exogenous variables stay at their constant values as described in the previous section. The result is a trajectory of the economy that depicts a future development if all things stay as they were until now. The results for the most important endogenous variables are shown below. Since the specification of all behavioural equations is still very crude and since prices are still completely missing in the model, these results should be seen (at this stage) not as a realistic forecast. However, they significantly reassure that the model is robust, since the results for all variables, flows and stocks, display a steady projection of the trend of the recent past. 4.1 BAU-Results: Non-Financial Transactions GDP and Net Lending/Net Borrowing are the main outcomes from the non-financial transactions. Output GDPt is completely demand-driven by (gross) consumption incl. VAT, government spending, investment, as well as the trade balance: GDPt = Ct +Gt + ? s It,s + EXPt ? IMPt + Tva,t (20) Figure 25 shows the Business as Usual (BAU) forecast for the Austrian GDP. The model and the underlying dynamics we supposed for the parameters shown above seems to replicate past dynamics fairly well. In the forecasting period 2015 - 2025, GDP growth seems to slow down - our model version of “secular stagnation” (to be discussed.) Figure 25: Austrian GDP - Past Data and Model BAU Forecast (in mln. Euro) 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 GDP dum - dum - dum finp/dir FA S time Sum of value VAR